Market fluctuations happen all the time, and early 2025 under the Trump administration has had the market bouncing. Market swings in general can complicate company valuation and market availability, but there is optimistic anticipation of a potential shift toward the market reopening for initial public offerings (IPO).

Delve into key insights and strategies to prepare for IPO opportunities that could resurface despite the initial uncertainty of early 2025.

IPO Forecast for 2025 and Beyond

2024's tentative recovery in IPOs appeared to be building toward a return to sustainable IPO activity levels reminiscent of the 2018–2019 period. The regulatory environment, particularly at the SEC, appears increasingly supportive of public market access while maintaining appropriate oversight. Increased market volatility and uncertainty around tariffs have paused the IPO window. Companies looking at an IPO exit in the fourth quarter of 2025 and beyond should begin preparing for more favorable conditions.

Watch for Risks: Lessons from 2024

With 252 IPOs in 2024, market enthusiasm, while mixed, is encouraging and warrants careful monitoring as similar sentiment patterns have historically preceded market bubbles. The challenge will be maintaining momentum while avoiding the excesses that have historically led to market corrections. Early 2025 has dented that momentum, but tailwinds from a more favorable environment in the second half of 2025 are an opportunity to regain it.

Managing Valuation Expectations and Market Timing

A recurring lesson from 2024 is the importance of managing valuation expectations amid market cycles. Historically, there have been periods of inflated valuations, which create immense pressure for companies to go public or seek exits at peak market conditions.

Companies looking to pursue an IPO should remain focused on long-term value creation and ensure they have a strong financial foundation to withstand potential market downturns.

2025 Outlook: Building on 2024’s Momentum

Many market analysts viewed the end of 2024 as a launchpad for a strong IPO environment in 2025, with the prevailing expectation that the momentum from late 2024 would accelerate in 2025, creating favorable conditions for companies considering a public offering. However, the first four months of the incoming administration have challenged that narrative.

Economic and Market Sentiment Factors

Policy and regulatory factors are shaping IPO market sentiment heading into 2025. The current president’s emphasis on economic expansion and pro-business policies has bolstered confidence, but uncertainties remain.

Issues such as tariffs, inflation, and evolving global trade relationships introduce potential headwinds. Uncertainty around the tariff policy hit a new high point in early April 2025, spilling over into broader economic concerns.

The landscape changes daily, and much of the demand for IPO exits persists, potentially foreshadowing a strong IPO market when the policy and economic landscape has stabilized.

Put the Data in Context

Historical data provides valuable context: 2022–2023's extremely low activity makes 2024's recovery appear more robust than it may be, while 2020-2021's SPAC-driven surge represents an unsustainable outlier rather than a realistic benchmark—only accounting for 57 of all 2024 IPOs but possibly reflecting a sustainable place in the capital markets for this method of going public.

Anticipated Regulatory Landscape: Changes and Their Impact

Signals from the SEC suggest a meaningful shift in regulatory approach, with renewed emphasis on its capital formation mandate alongside its traditional protective role. This evolving balance could create a more efficient path to public markets while maintaining necessary investor safeguards—a potential tailwind for IPO activity.

In 2024, regulatory changes weren’t a primary driver of IPO trends. Instead, macroeconomic factors such as inflation stabilization and declining interest rates played a more significant role in shaping market conditions. The absence of a near-term recession threat further contributed to a more favorable IPO environment, but these improvements were largely market-driven rather than the result of specific regulatory actions.

Looking ahead to later in 2025, companies should anticipate a shifting regulatory tone. The SEC is expected to adopt a more crypto-friendly stance while scaling back or eliminating rulemakings related to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues.

There’s a growing emphasis on the facilitate capital formation component of the SEC’s three-part mission, which may lead to a more business-friendly approach to regulation. Beyond the SEC, deregulatory initiatives in financial services are also expected to gain momentum, potentially reducing compliance burdens for companies preparing to go public.

For companies navigating this shifting landscape, the key to maintaining compliance while ensuring an efficient IPO process remains:

• Focus on strong fundamentals
• Start preparations early
• Resist the pressure to meet unrealistic valuation targets or rushed timelines

Staying proactive and adaptable will be essential in leveraging emerging regulatory shifts while safeguarding long-term growth.

Avoiding Previous Pitfalls

Assuming the market uncertainties of early 2025 don’t persist, market infrastructure and institutional readiness appear well-positioned to support increased IPO activity, though success will depend on maintaining disciplined pricing and careful risk assessment to avoid previous cycles' pitfalls.

Challenges remain a critical factor for companies considering a public offering. The new administration’s policy shifts are expected to create both winners and losers across sectors.

Crypto-linked companies, for example, are likely to benefit from a more favorable regulatory environment. Industries such as pharmaceuticals and government contractors could face headwinds depending on evolving policy directions. The broader narrative surrounding certain industries can change rapidly, as seen in the shifting sentiment around China-produced AI models and sensitivity to the location of supply chains.

As companies prepare for IPOs, striking the right balance between transparency and competitive positioning is always a consideration. However, concerns about protecting sensitive information during the IPO process are generally secondary to more pressing issues such as valuation expectations, regulatory readiness, and long-term business fundamentals.

Organizations that stay attuned to policy shifts and industry trends while maintaining disciplined IPO strategies will be best positioned for success in 2025.

Key IPO Trends Across all Industries

The IPO landscape continues to evolve, shaped by shifting market conditions, investor sentiment, and industry innovation. In 2024, most of the IPOs were lead from sectors within the manufacturing and distribution, technology, and financial services industries.

Early indications suggest strong activity in technology-driven sectors, particularly in AI, aerospace, defense, and space-related industries. These fields continue to attract investor interest due to rapid advancements and increasing government and commercial investments.

Looking ahead, companies in less traditional industries are finding fewer barriers to IPO success—provided they can move beyond the idea stage and demonstrate sustainable revenue generation and cash flow. Investors are prioritizing businesses with proven financial models over speculative growth potential, reinforcing the importance of strong fundamentals.

Private equity (PE) and venture capital (VC) firms remain influential players in the IPO landscape, and companies backed by these sponsors must take a strategic approach. Early, candid conversations with PE sponsors about their long-term intentions and exit strategies can make a significant difference. A well-defined IPO plan, rather than a rushed public debut with short notice, is essential for a smooth transition to the public markets.

As 2025 and 2026 unfold, companies seeking to go public must stay attuned to shifting industry narratives, investor expectations, and macroeconomic trends. Those that position themselves with clear strategies, operational stability, and strong market positioning will be best equipped to capitalize on IPO opportunities in the year ahead.

We’re Here to Help

If you have further questions about the outlook for IPOs for 2025 or how you might be impacted, please contact your Moss Adams professional.

Additional Resources

• IPO Solutions
• Public Company Audit Services